Demography in LINE - migration patterns

In order to be able to analyse the incentives for rural municipalities to support an offensive politics on nature preservation, a demographic model, with focus on migration, is built up. The demographic model is to integrated into LINE, a regional macro economic model at municipality level for Denmark. By that, it is possible to carry out model calculations to judge upon the effects from demographic changes on disposable income employment, production etc. The focus is upon people''s incentives to move to municipalities with a "green profile", and the effects of this.

Modelling regional economic effects of the Öresund link -linking two regional economic models

The Öresund link, opened in July 2000, is a sixteen-kilometre fixed link with several specific characteristics. E.g., the link connects two countries, Denmark and Sweden and two urban areas, Copenhagen and Malmö, with 1 and 0,5 million people, respectively. Further, the fixed link reaches Denmark nearby Copenhagen Airport, which implies easy access to an international airport for a lot of people in Southern Sweden. No doubt, a fixed link with these features will influence the regional interaction and regional development in many ways. Defining a suitable model approach for assessing the regional economic consequences of the fixed link raises several challenging issues: The problem of dealing with border barriers, the choice between regional and multiregional approaches, the difficulty of modelling short term as well as long term effects. These issues seem too complicated to be dealt with within a single model framework. The paper presents one limited model approach. Two regional economic models, LINE in Denmark and RAPS in Sweden, are linked to each other by a common interaction module, where flows from/to the respective part of the Öresund region are being modelled, with respect to trade, commuting and migration. Preliminary model results are presented, mainly dealing with the impact of building the link.

Decomposition of the Change in the Amount of Commuting in Denmark 1980-1995

The amount of commuting has increased in Denmark from 1980 -1995. Several factors can have caused this increase. The goal of this paper is to measure the contributions from different factors, using a decomposition analysis. Several variants of the decomposition method are presented and used. The results from the different approaches are rather similar, however. The decomposition is model dependent, giving different results for different models. If a Keynesian model is assumed, it is concluded, that it is the location of residences which is responsible for the major part of the increased commuting. If a neoclassical growth model is assumed, however, the location of firms is responsible. For both models, the growth in number of employed persons contributes with some amount, while the sector distribution has nearly no impact

A Commuting Model

In the paper, two different versions of a commuting model applicable for the regional macroeconomic model LINE are presented. The first is a gravity model type, while the second is a logit model. The model types are presented and compared, and estimation results are given. First however, data are presented. Commuting data are obtained from registers at Statistics Denmark. Furthermore data on distances, costs, etc. from different sources are used